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They help find the signal in the is a big climate conference coming up in Paris in December, 2015.Diplomats will debate the merits of an agreement that promises to steer hundreds of billions of dollars toward reducing carbon emissions, mostly in large developing countries. Let’s ask four hard questions and see what we can learn …Let’s look with fresh eyes and see what we can learn.There is almost no correlation between temperature and carbon dioxide until about ten million years ago., and CO2 changes some 800 years later. This is called the temperature lag — an inconvenient truth for CO2-warming enthusiasts; it’s well known but not well understood.
Almost all scientists expect a small man-made contribution to warming, so the claim is misleading. One key paper can be a breakthrough, but there are very few of those.
A better source of information is properly done metastudies (reviews of all the literature on a topic) conducted by qualified statisticians.
Here are the sections: This nine-thousand-word essay represents over 400 hours of research boiled down into a half-hour reading experience, with links to 250 carefully chosen documents and videos.
I’m building the argument from the bottom up, so take your time and see if it makes sense.
Now I try to put my reactions aside and look at all the evidence before coming to a conclusion. Governments often make policy decisions by starting with a social objective and then bring in the “facts” to justify the goal (think of the Vietnam war, the Iraq war, Prohibition, the War on Drugs, and others).
We shouldn’t be surprised to find social agendas driving at least some of the “science” of global warming.The Greenhouse Effect In this section, I focus on CO2 because it’s regarded as the main greenhouse gas after water vapor.Looking at the 750-million-year graph below, we see some extreme cold periods, then warm epochs punctuated by ice ages, all while CO2 (yellow) was far above what it is today.Along the way, I’ll list five “smoking guns” that I think make the argument for decarbonization unsupportable. y journey into critical thinking has taught me to hold strong opinions loosely.I’ve been more wrong in my life than I thought was possible.We should try to avoid shortcuts and look directly at the data.Forecasts are mental constructs; they are not properties of the physical world. In most cases, the size of the error bars (uncertainty) around the number is more important than the number itself.One key paper can be worth more than thousands of papers reinforcing a myth.The claim that 97 percent of scientists believe in man-made global warming is one such myth. I’m a Democrat: I think governments play a key role in helping preserve our environment for the future in the most cost-effective way possible. At first, I was annoyed, because I thought the science really was settled. More than thirty years ago, I became vegan because I believed it was healthier (it’s not), and I’ve stayed vegan because I believe it’s better for the environment (it is). I love animals; I’ll gladly fly halfway around the world to take photos of them in their natural habitats.